Reports
Long-form independent systems risk analysis — structural fragility modelled as interacting systems rather than isolated risks. Built on the Compound Cascade framework.
When Repairs Fall Behind
What happens when electricity, telecommunications and fuel are disrupted repeatedly over weeks — and repairs in one service depend on the others. A Great Britain-focused four-arm simulation that returns an adverse result for its own starting hypothesis.
Read the report →
The Fall of the United Kingdom?
18 structural decline vectors, 100 interactions and 9 self-reinforcing feedback loops modelled as one system — a 40–70% probability of Accelerated Decline or worse by 2035, against 10–20% under additive assessment.
Read the report →
From Hormuz to Hunger
How a Strait of Hormuz blockade propagates into a global fertilizer and food-security crisis — the compound cascade that institutional models miss, traced as a single interacting system.
Read the report →