10 October 2026 | OilWatch analysis | First published on EuroOilWatch
Saudi Arabia's EastāWest Pipeline, its main route around the Strait of Hormuz, is running again. On Kpler's estimates, Middle East crude exports are back at pre-war volume. The question for UK readers is not whether the barrels exist but how many fragile links they now depend on.
Saudi Arabia's energy minister put pipeline flows at 5.8 million barrels a day on 6 October. That was a single same-morning figure, not a sustained series, and pipeline barrels are not export barrels. From Yanbu, Asia-bound cargoes still depend on Bab el-Mandeb, where control of the Yemeni coast remains contested. This week Houthi attacks on Saudi airports killed six people across three days. None of those attacks hit the pipeline or Yanbu.
The full analysis sets out what the 5.8 figure does and does not show. It explains why the summer's loading data are less clean than they look, and lists six checks OilWatch will use to separate rising threats from lost supply.