The accessible-inventory runway runs in months, not weeks — but it assumes the draw rate holds steady. It won't. Once shortage becomes visible, precautionary buying pulls demand forward and the glide steepens toward the floor. Drag the dial to see how much fear compresses the timeline.
Reads as: buffer = OECD commercial stock above the systemic operating floor (~527 mb est, as of 12 Jun 2026). Structural net draw on the accessible buffer ≈ 1.6 mb/d — the OECD-paced rate implied by the EIA's Jan→Dec path (stocks 2,838→2,300 mb), not the 6.3–8.5 mb/d total global observed draw, which is met largely from non-OECD / on-water / opaque-China stock. Panic demand ramps with depletion (logistic, k=6, f₀=0.35) — a one-off scramble that pulls demand forward. Caveat: the operating-floor level and the panic parameters are OilWatch estimates, not reported data. This is a behavioural scenario model, not a price forecast. (v2 — corrects the v1 draw-vs-buffer mismatch that compressed the runway to weeks.)